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Second Rally Attempt Loses Altitude

This is the second big rally attempt this week, but it is losing some altitude. I think there are a few narratives:

  • Omicron will not be a disaster
  • Powell still mum on rate hikes
  • Market bias has shifted to the downside

We are seeing earnings winners getting hammered today in an automatic response that has nothing to do with execution or guidance.

The fact is there is little for investors to use as a spark, other than stocks being less expensive today than yesterday.

Still all S&P sectors are higher and reopening stocks along with oil names are leading the way.

This market needs a spark but doesn’t know what it would look like.

Inflation Easing

ISM was a big plus for the market with the biggest surprise coming on prices.

  • New Orders is the most important component (30% for the report) 61.5 from 59.8
  • Production is second most important component (25%) 61.5 from 59.3
  • employment is third most important component (20%) edging higher to 53.3 from 52.0

Prices paid was the most encouraging sign – maybe they peaked in June?

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